Your Unfair Information Edge
Deep Market Analysis
Every prediction market gets a structured breakdown: base rates, comparable events, and expert sources.
Historical base rate 12.4%
02_DELTA:
Geopolitical vol +4.1pp
03_VERDICT:
MARKET_UNDERPRICED
Real-Time Tracking
Divergence detection across Polymarket and Kalshi. Spot price gaps before they close.
Edge Ratings
Know at a glance where the smart money should flow and why.
Analyst Reasoning Logs
Read the full reasoning chain with reference sources, counterarguments, and confidence intervals.
From Raw Data to Conviction
Orderbooks, price action, and contract rules synced continuously.
Structured snapshots of bid/ask spreads from regulated venues.
Macro headlines and analyst notes mapped to live markets.
Each market is anchored to real-world analogs using Bayesian Inference.
Compares fair probability versus market pricing to tag edge setups.
High-impact markets get a final human pass for timing and conviction.
Signals are scored against outcomes to improve model accuracy.
Members see verdicts, edge size, and active market queues.
Every premium signal carries the full thesis and audit trail.
Alpha Board
Select Your Conviction
Start with 4 lifetime analyses and basic market intelligence access.
Up to 30 analyses weekly with the core intelligence stack for active market tracking.
Unlimited access with advanced analytics and premium market intelligence workflows.
Analyst Feedback
"I've been trading Polymarket for two years. Problys.io is the first tool that gives me a real reason to update my priors, not just my position size."
"The edge ratings alone are worth it. Saved me from two bad Kalshi macro bets in my first week. The reasoning log is genuinely impressive."
"Finally something for people who actually care about the fundamentals. Most prediction market tools are just charts. Problys.io is actual analysis."
Master the Market Cycle
Gain immediate access to our full intelligence layer, institutional-grade research, and real-time edge ratings.